Linkedin Target Price Raised to $270

LNKD : NASDAQ : US$247.14
Target: US$270.00

LinkedIn is the world’s largest professional network on the Internet with more than 200 million members in over 200
countries and territories. LinkedIn generates revenue through selling Hiring Solutions to corporations, Marketing Solutions to
Advertisers, and Premium Subscription to members and recruiters.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted

LinkedIn’s Q3 results were marked by continued strong execution, with revenue growth barely decelerating (from 59% last quarter to 56% this quarter, and strong delivery of revenue upside to the bottom line (EBITDA margin of 56% vs. our est. of 54%). Management issued somewhat muted growth guidance, citing tougher comps and greater Q4 traffic seasonality due to the rapid pace of product rollouts driving very high engagement and a tougher comp in Q4 2012.

With several positives on the horizon, including the continued ramp of Sales Solutions, China expansion, and continued operating leverage, we continue to like the stock despite its super-premium valuation.
Key Points
 Bullish: Member growth re-accelerated to 38% y/y as did Member page views, which grew 72% in Q3; marketing solutions revenue growth accelerated to 38.2% y/y, and this momentum should continue into 2014 as Sponsored Updates are fully rolled out.
Bearish: Q4 revenue guidance of $415-420 million and EBITDA guidance of $98-100 million is below our estimates of
$448M/$112.4M and consensus of $438M/109.5M.
Estimates Changes:

We are raising out-year estimates slightly to account for higher growth in all segments. Our EPS estimates for 2013/14/15 go to $1.69, $2.33 and $3.90 from $1.56, $2.32 and $3.88.
We are raising our price target to $270 (up from $230) based on 60x our 2017 EPS estimate of $6.81, discounted to present at a rate of 11%. We recognize this is a premium valuation, which we believe is warranted by the company’s large opportunity and strong strategic position.


MBAC Fertilizer Corp.

MBC : TSX : C$2.07
Target: C$3.55 

MBAC Fertilizer Corp. is a Canadian-domiciled development corporation focused on becoming a significant integrated fertilizer producer in Brazil. The company has ownership of assets within various regions of Brazil, but its immediate focus is on the development of the Itafos phosphate deposit in Goias state. Longer term, MBAC intends to produce phosphate from multiple locations across Brazil.
All amounts in C$ unless otherwise noted.

Investment recommendation
The net result of this press release to our model is favourable later in the decade as Santana ramps up to capacity in 2017E. The lowering of our capital expenditure estimate and of our operating cost assumption (albeit not to the company’s estimated levels) are net positives. However, given that our target price is based upon our 2015 EBITDA estimate and that our multiple takes into consideration the strong growth potential from additional forecast future production, our target price remains unchanged.
Investment highlights
The capital cost estimate is US$427 million (including a US$50 million contingency). There are some costs borne at the Itafos project (a US$323 million project) that would not be duplicated at the Santana project (a water dam, pre-planning/design for a doubling of output, etc), but other costs such as infrastructure to the site would be substantial (and hence why the overall cost was always expected to be higher at Santana). However, that is offset by a much higher grade and lower operating cost mine. The company expects to produce 500ktpa of SSP 0-19-0 product (which is a more valuable grade of product than what is being produced at Itafos (1-17-0) due to the much higher grade of the Santana ore body). Estimated operating cost per tonne at Santana in the BFS is US$113 versus our original estimate of US$140.
The reaction to the release was negative, not to the BFS, but to the lack of an update on Itafos, which is ramping to full operational capacity and should be at the desired level in Q4/13. We assume that the company will sell 50kt of SSP in 2013. We do highlight that every 25mt of sales only impacts our estimated cash balance by less than C$2 million. As a result, at this stage, we are more focused on the ramping up of the facility in Q4 than whether or not they meet or miss our sales estimate by 25kt in 2013, given how little an impact that is to their financial situation as estimated in our model. Further commentary on their financial position is discussed below and we believe funding is no longer a concern.
We continue to rate the shares of MBAC a BUY with a 12-month target price of C$3.55 based upon a 9.5x multiple to our 2015E EBITDA of C$80.9 million.

Stryker Update Target $ 76

SYK : NYSE : US$72.55
Target: US$76.00

Stryker Corporation is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of medical devices and instrumentations in the orthopedic and other medical specialties.

Life Sciences — Biomedical Devices and Services
Investment recommendation
We maintain our BUY rating following the release of Q3/13 results with solid revenues offsetting a weaker-than-expected adjusted EPS. Stryker continues to grow at above-market rates, taking share in the hip and trauma/extremities markets, and maintaining its position in knees despite recent competitive launches. New leadership and operating structures internationally are gaining traction, as OUS was strong in the Q3/13. We maintain our BUY on Stryker given solid top-line results, which we believe outweighs short-term profit gyrations.
Investment highlights
 Stryker reported Q3/13 results with solid revenues relative to our expectations. U.S. hip and trauma/extremities were strong while knees were in-line.
 Adjusted EPS was weaker than expected due to FX impact. We believe investors will focus on revenue growth given the lack of growth in large-cap med tech.
 Management noted its intent to leverage the MAKO technology as a capstone within its recon platform and drive longer-term share shift in the US market.
We are increasing our price target to $76.00 from $72.00

Northern Oil and Gas

NOG : NYSE MKT : US$17.11
Target: US$19.00

Northern Oil and Gas engages in acquisition, exploration, exploitation, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the US Rocky Mountains. Its core focus is the Middle Bakken formation in the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. Its secondary focus is Red River and Mission Canyon formations in Montana

Energy — Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production
Investment recommendation
NOG is a Williston Basin (WB) Bakken/Three Forks pure-play with a non-operated model. The company is one of the largest non-operating participants in the play and a natural clearinghouse for non-operated working interests. We see good value in the stock and believe a resumption of production growth, which is now happening, should be the recipe for a higher share price.
Investment highlights
 NOG announced that Q3/13 production is expected to average ~13MBoe/d, a 19% Q/Q increase. This soundly beat our 12.2 MBoe/d and consensus of 12.3 MBoe/d. During the quarter, the company added 147 gross (12.1 net) wells to production with an additional 260 gross (18.8 net) wells that were drilling or awaiting completion at the end of the quarter. NOG had a producing well count at the end of the quarter of 1,585 gross (133.5 net).
 NOG expects Q3 realized price per Boe, including the effect of settled derivatives, to be in a range of $82.00 – $83.00, and its LOE to be in a range of $9.50 – $9.75/Boe.

Integrated Device Technology BUY

Target: US$12.00

IDT designs, develops, manufactures and markets a range of semiconductor products for the communications, computing and consumer industries. Computing products are designed for use in desktops, notebooks, workstations and server applications while consumer products are optimized for gaming consoles, set-top boxes, digital TV and smartphones. Communications products are designed for use in networking and telecom applications.

Investment recommendation
IDTI delivered EPS upside and guided to EPS above the Street on strength across all verticals. While some uncertainty persists on SRIO demand in China (ship into hub and other suppliers have seen weakness), management remains committed to lowering the revenue threshold for achieving 20% operating margins. We are increasing our estimates and raise our price target to $12.
Investment highlights
 IDTI reported CQ3/13A (Sep) after the close. Revenues and EPS were $124.6 million and $0.10, compared to our estimates of $125.5M/$0.09 and consensus estimates of $125.1M/$0.08.
Revenue of $124.6 million came in slightly below the mid-point of the guided range ($122M to $128M) driven by sequential growth in all end markets and EPS of $0.10 was better than guidance driven by better-than-expected gross margins and an expansion in operating margin to 16.5% the highest level since September 2010.
Management guided revenue and EPS of $126 million (+1% Q/Q) and $0.12 at the mid-point, compared to consensus expectations of  $129.4 million and $0.11 and our prior estimate of $133.5 million and $0.12. Management reiterated their long-term operating margin target of 20% at the $135M to $145M revenue level with continued focus on cost controls and expanding gross margins.
IDTI’s price target of $12 (was $11) is 17x our C2014 EPS estimate of $0.54 plus net cash of $2.91/share.

What Is A Bond Investor To Do ? Guidelines

Bond returns are at record lows.

Bond investors must consider a switch of some funds into equities but conservative investors fear the stock market is a Jedi Knight turned to the Dark Side waiting to swoop down and destroy their portfolio. You must act to preserve your ” buying power” but what to do ?

Here is a guideline we suggest for building a portfolio that cuts down risk( risk cannot be eliminated ):

1) limit selections to common stock listed on major exchanges

2) no stock selling for less than $5.00

3) only select companies that are profitable

4) only purchase stocks that are paying a dividend

5) avoid attempts at market timing

The strategy outlined in this  guideline is simple but not easy to follow. For a more detailed explanation of selection criteria please refer to The Apprentice Millionaire Portfolio available from

Portfolio  Management : Engagement Process for Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts

The Engagement Agreement authorizes us to officially act on your  behalf and also provides for protection of confidentiality in regards to the dissemination and distribution of your sensitive financial information.Generally you will name Jack A. Bass as a person allowed to trade your portfolio – BUT without any authority to remove funds from your account.

Due Diligence. Once our company is engaged, we undertake the required due diligence to confirm and verify the necessary information required to execute your request.

Evaluation. After due diligence we evaluate your / your  company’s current value and estimate future value based on recent market and other comparable data.

Fees. Engagement Fees are  NOT based on the number of hours and direct costs required to complete due diligence, perform an evaluation, and prepare the necessary information to support your request that we act for you.Our initial review: this includes performing financial analysis, conduct competitive comparisons, in- depth financial reviews, and validating the necessary information to prepare the most compelling portfolio related to your needs.

We earn our fees by performance :

1 % per year as administration

20 % of annual portfolio gains calculated twice a year

There is no cost or obligation to contact us at ( or call Jack directly at 604-858-3202 – same time zone as Los Angeles)

Main website

Cepheid Update Raising Target Price

CPHD : NASDAQ : US$38.47
Target: US$50.00

Cepheid is a leading pure-play molecular diagnostics company focused on developing, manufacturing, and marketing devices that facilitate molecular testing predominantly in the healthcare-associated infections (HAI) and oncology segments. Cepheid has 12 FDA-approved tests and 13 CE-marked tests in its clinical offering, which comprised 89% of its revenue in 2011.

Life Sciences — Biomedical Devices and Services
Investment recommendation
CPHD reported a strong beat-and-raise Q3 driven by continued strong demand for GeneXpert and new assays, and driven by strong US and OUS business, including HBDC. CPHD has completely replenished all of its backorder issues and has built up a solid month of test inventory.
Investment highlights
 CT/NG is emerging as an instrument driver. As our lab interviews suggested, CPHD confirmed that roughly half of its 300 CT/NG accounts are coming from consolidating competitive CT/NG assays.
 Revs/placements outperform. Q3 revs of $100.1M (+24%) topped our $93M (+16%)/Street’s $93.9M. Total commercial placements of 133 topped our 115E. Worldwide Xpert systems topped 5,000.
 Backorders are all cleared. CPHD has replenished all of its tests and has built finished goods inventory of four weeks, including flu. CPHD also hired two new manufacturing and supply chain VPs, strengthening the global operations team led by Warren Kocmond.
 Raised guidance. CPHD raised 2013 sales guidance by ~$7.5M to $389M-391M (from $380-385M) and raised EPS by about $0.03, with Adj. EPS guidance going to $0.22-0.24 (from $0.18-$0.21).
Our $50 PT assumes a 7.9x P/S multiple on our 2014 revs of $443M. We believe CPHD merits trading at a premium to its peers (5-7x), given its broad, growing platform and large install base of 5,000+.