Shipping Sector Smacked by Dow and BDI Decline

We live in the hope that we will see a sustained recovery in the BDI

AND the world economy – but it ain’t happening. Worries about the anemic U.S. recovery, the crisis in the Ukraine, a slowdown in China

all combine to hurt our AMP Watchlist – but not our investment returns. We have a list of stocks that will benefit when the three sisters unite – in the meantime we have to be content to know that someday when the turn occurs we will be purchasing our portfolio at substantially better prices because of our patience.

Here is my comment on Seeking Alpha

The real regret is getting in too early . The real problem of a falling Baltic Index and slowdown in China means heightened risk in a sector not yet in supply/ demand balance with still too many new vessels on order. Keep to the sidelines until a turn in fortunes happens – too many fortunes are reduced by trying to read the future

 

 

Right now the DOW is off 129 points – following a decline of 158 points on Friday.

 

The Baltic Trade Index continues to slide and defies all the prophets of shipping profits:

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)    -19   1186 
Rates

BCI

(Cape index)

BPI

(Panamax index)

BSI

(Supramax index)
INDEX

2293

-13

812

-10

982

-21

SPOT 4 TCE AVG (USD)

16210

-241

6548

-83

10270

-222

YESTERDAY (USD)

16451

6631

10492

YEAR AGO (USD)

4297

8674 9488

Here is a portion of an article posted today – notice how many caveats the author had to add to hedge any bets of a revival anytime soon:

Shipping company DryShips’ (DRYS) shares have fallen off a cliff this year. The stock is down a substantial 25%, as the shipping industry has fallen upon tough times, and there could be tougher times ahead. However, we shouldn’t ignore the positive moves that DryShips is making that could help it make a comeback in the long run.

Even though DryShips turned in a weak performance last quarter as a result of a decline in shipping rates for cargo, a comeback cannot be ruled out in the future. The prospects of the shipping industry are expected to improve, according to analysts, and DryShips could also witness a turnaround.

Here is the market verdict this morning:

DRYSHIPS INC(DRYS:NASDAQ, US)

3.16USDDecrease0.10(-3.07%)Volume: 
Above Average

SAFE BULKERS INC(SB:NYSE, US)

8.88USDDecrease0.30(-3.27%)Volume: 
Above Average
As of 07 Apr 2014 at 12:12 PM EDT.

DIANA SHIPPING INC(DSX:NYSE, US)

11.67USDDecrease0.46(-3.79%)Volume: 
Above Average
As of 07 Apr 2014 at 12:13 PM

 

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