SAGE Therapeutics BUY Target Price $40

SAGE : NASDAQ : US$29.05
BUY 
Target: US$40.00

COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
SAGE Therapeutics is a development/clinical stage
biopharmaceutical company founded in 2010 that is
focused on developing and commercializing drugs to
treat central nervous system (CNS) disorders where no
effective or FDA approved options exist.
Life Sciences — Biotechnology
SAGE-547 CHANCE OF SUCCESS FAVORABLE IN TOUGH DISEASE
Investment highlights
Estimate $980M US peak sales for SAGE-547
We estimate $980M US peak sales from ~13,300 SRSE patients,
representing 55% of total super refractory status epilepticus (SRSE)
patients and 13.8% of all ~96,000 patients treated for status epilepticus
in the hospital. We assume a cost of ~$75,000 per patient annually,
which we believe is appropriate for the hospital setting given these
patients are critically ill and are on last lines of therapy.
SAGE-547 has clear mechanism of action
SAGE-547’s mechanism is well understood, upregulating GABA at two
synapses (α1 and α 4) while current therapies only hit GABA at α1
receptor. We believe this gives the drug an advantage over other
therapies because the dual interaction can potentiate stronger GABA
duration, leading to improved seizure control.
Current therapies remain ineffective
Current therapies remain ineffective in controlling SRSE (response rates
<40%) or have intolerable side effects, giving SAGE-547 a low risk of
penetrating in this market. Additionally, we want to emphasize the
severity of this disease where patients in the ICU carry a mortality risk
of close to ~50%, making this an area of high unmet medical need.
Expect positive SAGE-547 weaning data in December
We expect positive data for SAGE-547 when patients are weaned off
drug and brought out of coma in December for at least n=10 patients.
Previous data suggested resolution of SRSE in 9/10 patients, whereas
new data will discuss weaning patients off drug and reversing coma

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