NYSE : US$37.90 BUY
Gap is a global specialty retailer of clothing and
accessories for women, men, and children. GPS brands
consist of Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Athleta, and
Piperlime. The company operates 3,200 stores
worldwide, and GPS products are sold through nearly 400
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.
Consumer & Retail — Specialty Retail
Q3 EARNINGS SHAPING UP BETTER THAN WE HAD ANTICIPATED
We are raising our Q3 EPS estimate by $0.08 to $0.73 driven by
better margins than we had expected. GPS guided for Q3
adjusted EPS of $0.72-$0.73, excluding a $0.06 benefit resulting
from the recognition of certain foreign tax credits. Prior
consensus was $0.71. We are raising our Q3 gross margin
estimate by 50bps and reducing our operating expense rate by
90bps. We expect gross margin expansion to return in Q4 and
continue into FY15 and beyond as GPS starts to reap the rewards
from its supply-chain initiatives, at first through fabric
platforming and later from vendor managed inventory and rapid
response inventory management. We continue to believe the
long-term margin expansion opportunity is underappreciated
and not reflected at the stock’s current valuation of 12x our
C2015 EPS estimate and 6x C2015E EV/EBITDA.
October SSS split the difference between our estimate and
consensus. GPS’s consolidated October SSS declined 3% on
top of +4%, versus our -4% forecast and consensus of -2%.
October is largely a clearance month, and we are leaving our
top-line outlook unchanged for the remainder of FY14.