Intel Corporation HOLD


US$35.95 HOLD 
Target: US$35.00

Intel Corporation is the world’s largest semiconductor
chip maker, in terms of revenue. The company develops
advanced integrated digital technology platforms and
components, primarily integrated circuits (ICs), targeted
at the computing and communications industries.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.

Technology — Hardware — Semiconductors and Related Technologies
Investment recommendation:

Intel’s analyst day in Santa Clara – mixed feelings as to upside to the stock from
current levels following the significant (and well-earned) appreciation over
the last 12 months. While the management team presented very strong
product portfolios and growth prospects for both DCG and IoTG, as well as
confidence to continue Moore’s Law beyond 10nm as a key differentiator,
Mobile loss forecasts for 2015 were worse than our expectation and only
modestly improved Y/Y.

Further, despite 2015 guidance for PCs that was
better than feared, market stabilization continues to become more dependent
on a recovery in consumer PC spending versus enterprise, which drove the
recent resurgence. We believe Intel is well positioned for solid earnings
growth while delivering attractive capital returns over the next few years.
However, we believe much of this fundamental strength is already reflected
in the stock given the recent appreciation, and lingering questions regarding
mobile ROI remain. We maintain our HOLD rating and $35 price target.
Investment highlights
 2015 guidance for mid-single digit revenue growth and gross margin of
62% were both slightly below our prior 6.2%/62.8% estimates, with
slightly lower 14nm yields potentially dragging down 1H/15 gross
margin. Guidance for modest Mobile revenue in 2015 with a loss still
over $3B was below our expectations for a more material improvement.
 However, key growth sectors of Data Center and IoT were guided above
our estimates for 2015. Further, management guided to slightly lower
capital spending Y/Y at $10.5B, and underpinned confidence in the longterm
business model by raising the annual dividend from $0.90 to $0.96,
bringing the dividend yield to 2.7%. Finally, while 2015 guidance for
only slightly down Y/Y sales in PCCG will be viewed as a relief to some
given an expanded channel, we wait for evidence of improving consumer
notebook sales into the headwind of the iPhone 6 upgrade cycle.
 We adjust our 2015 revenue, GAAP EPS, and non GAAP
EPS estimates from $59.3B/$2.45/$2.68 to $58.6B/$2.35/$2.57.
Valuation: Our $35 price target is based on shares trading at roughly 14x our
2015 non-GAAP EPS estimate, excluding stock-based compensation.

NEW go to


November 2014 – 40 % cash position

Year End Review and Forecast

A decade of increasing productive capacity has fattened supplies of commodities just as the world economy grows less commodity-intensive and investment demand wanes with traditional equity and bond markets performing well.

The idea that commodities were even a proper investment asset class for long-term investors was never fully demonstrated. Commodity prices tend to be mean reverting through successive cycles rather than instruments that produce cash income or build economic value.

Yet many in the financial industry promoted the idea of a “supercycle” fed by global industrialization and “peak oil” supply constraints. For sure, commodities look quite oversold in the short term and sentiment has turned severely against them, supporting the chances for a trading bounce or pause in the declines.

Yet even if the lows are in for oil or gold, the big picture is now looking decidedly less “super” for long-term commodity bulls. In one representative example of flagging investor interest in commodities, assets in the bellwether Pimco Commodity Real Return Strategy fund (PCRIX) have fallen below $13 billion – down by more than a third in two years.


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