Tonnage Keeps on Coming – sector keeps drifting to the reefs
Dry Bulk Forecaster
London, UK, 8th February 2012 – Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to continue hitting dry bulk shipowners hard.
Tonnage supply hit a massive 605 million dwt at the end of 2011, an increase of 15.2%, which is even more impressive considering 19 million dwt was removed in the same period. With rates suffering under current market conditions Drewry’s forecast for the fleet hitting 684 million dwt by the end of 2012 and 765 million dwt by the end of 2016 signals daunting prospects for the future.
The near future will play heavily on supply-side fundamentals, as ships continue to hit the water at a very fast pace. Given the colossal delivery schedule and slippage from previous years, deliveries in 2012 are forecast to increase further to 97.6 million dwt. The largest increase in deliveries is foreseen in the VLOC segment, where a total of 16.5 million dwt of tonnage will hit the water compared with only 8.9 million dwt in 2011. In light of
China’s recent ban on such vessels, this could mean further headaches for owners.
Demolition in this over-supplied market totalled 19.1 mdwt in 2011, nearly quadruple that of the preceding year, as the ailing hire market forced owners to retire older ships. 2012 levels are forecast to reach almost the same as 2011 due to the declining average demolition age of vessels. However the Capesize segment is set to see a decline in demolition levels as most of the obsolete vessels were already demolished in 2011. In the longer forecast period all demolitions are expected to decline, to total 10.6 mdwt in 2016.
Shalini Shekhawat, a dry bulk analyst at Drewry stated, “It’s not all bad news for the sector as Drewry forecasts a 4% growth in trade for 2012, increasing yearly to a rate of 5.8% come 2016, which considering growth stood at less than 1% in 2011 is a boost for the market . Coupled with an orderbook that has been shrinking since February 2009, when it sat at 295 million dwt, there are glimmers of hope that the serious issue of over supply can start to be addressed.”
The AMP Year End Forecast – right on oil and the shipping sector :
Here is our recent letter:
Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast
November 2014 – 40 % cash position
Gold and Precious Metals
The largest gains for our clients came from the exit from the gold producers at $18oo an ounce and continuing until we hold no gold and no gold miners . This from the author of The Gold Investors Handbook.
2015 – We continue to be on the sidelines for this sector – regardless of the gnomes of Switzerland . As a safe haven gold simply wasnot there for investors despite turmoil in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine.How much more frightening can the prospect for peace be than to have wars in multiple locations? Secondly the spectre of inflation – on which I have given numerous talks – simply failed to materialize. In fact economists and portfolio managers such as myself are now more concerned about deflation – and the spectre is a Japanese style decades long slide in the world economy.
Shipping Sector / Bulk Shippers
You can review our stock market letter at http://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates- illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait .
I am very happy for the call in natural gas prices – out at $12 and into oil. When oil was above $100 we lessened positions and that is our saving grace in the past two weeks. We are not bottom feeders and will wait for a turn in the market before reentering drillers or producers.
On Friday November 27th, crude oil prices dropped to below $72 and the slide has continued into the weekend, with Brent crude oil at $70.15 as I write this post. Shares of major oil companies traded down on Friday. Our former energy sector holdings are down another between 4% and 11%, including SDRL, which dropped another 8% following Wednesday’s 23% plunge:
Company (Ticker) Price Change
Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE:ETP) $ 65.17 -4.13%
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) $ 90.54 -4.17%
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) $108.87 -5.42%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP ) $ 66.07 -6.72%
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (NASDAQ:VNR) $ 23.22 -6.86%
Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL) $ 14.66 -8.32%
Have you avoided this sector – you would have been better off to follow our advice in 2014 and now you have to decide for 2015.
No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.
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Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.