The “New Normal “for Gold ( BTO / BTG) and Energy/ Oil/ Gas ( Baytex)

Baytex Energy*

(BTE : TSX : $16.90), Net Change: 0.44, % Change: 2.67%, Volume: 5,712,428
THE NEW NORMAL: REDUCING CAPEX AND LOWERING DISTRIBUTIONS. Baytex Energy announced its 2015
capex budget and lowered its monthly dividend. The company will be spending $575-650 million in 2015, that’s ~20% lower
than consensus estimates of $765 million. Roughly 75% of Baytex’s 2015 capital budget will be invested in the Eagle Ford.
Baytex provided 2015 production guidance of 88,000-92,000 boe/d that was just shy of the consensus estimate of 93,400 boe/d.
Approximately 52% of the company’s 2015 annual production is expected to be generated in Canada with the remaining 48%
coming from its Eagle Ford assets in the U.S. With respect to hedges, for H1/15, Baytex has entered into hedges on
approximately 41% of their net WTI exposure with 29% fixed at US$96.47/bbl and 12% receiving WTI plus US$10.91/bbl
when WTI is below US$80.00/bbl. For H2/15, the company has entered into hedges on ~12% of their net WTI exposure with
8% fixed at US$95.98/bbl and 4% receiving WTI plus US$10.00/bbl when WTI is below US$80.00/bbl. The company cut its
monthly dividend by ~58% from $0.24 per share to $0.10. Under the new dividend policy, the annualized dividend of $1.20 per share represents a dividend yield of ~7.1% based yesterday’s close.
B2Gold* (BTO : TSX : $2.08)

Net Change: 0.09, % Change: 4.52%, Volume: 7,748,492

Update
UNSCATHED? B2Gold reports that operations are running normally at the Masbate Mine, Philippines, following Typhoon
Hagupit. The typhoon first made landfall last Saturday at the island of Samar, just southeast of Masbate Island, reaching
Masbate early Sunday. The eye of the storm tracked close to the site of Masbate Gold Mine. By late Sunday, the typhoon had
diminished in strength and passed over the island. Mining operations were curtailed during the storm event and have resumed.
Ore processing continued, however at the peak of the typhoon there was a 15.5 hour shutdown to plant production as operations were halted as a precautionary measure. The process plant is now operating at full capacity and the 2014 Masbate production forecast of 180,000 ounces of gold remains unaffected. According to Reuters, Hagupit has left 27 dead, nearly 13,000 houses destroyed and more than 22,300 damaged on the eastern island of Samar. According to Canaccord 
Analyst Rahul Paul, based on current projections and assuming no additional debt/equity raises or drawdowns, he foresees no capital shortfalls for B2Gold to the end of 2017 provided gold prices were to remain above US$1,151/oz.

 

Here is our recent letter:

Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast

Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast
November 2014 – 40 % cash position
Gold and Precious Metals

The largest gains for our clients came from the exit from the gold producers at $18oo an ounce and continuing until we hold no gold and no gold miners . This from the author of The Gold Investors Handbook.

2015 – We continue to be on the sidelines for this sector – regardless of the gnomes of Switzerland . As a safe haven gold simply wasnot there for investors despite turmoil in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine.How much more frightening can the prospect for peace be than to have wars in multiple locations? Secondly the spectre of inflation – on which I have given numerous talks – simply failed to materialize. In fact economists and portfolio managers such as myself are now more concerned about deflation – and the spectre is a Japanese style decades long slide in the world economy.

Shipping Sector / Bulk Shippers

You can review our stock market letter at http://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates-  illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait .

Oil/ Energy

I am very happy for the call in natural gas prices – out at $12 and into oil. When oil was above $100 we lessened positions and that is our saving grace in the past two weeks. We are not bottom feeders and will wait for a turn in the market before reentering drillers or producers.

On Friday November 27th, crude oil prices dropped to below $72 and the slide has continued into the weekend, with Brent crude oil at $70.15 as I write this post. Shares of major oil companies traded down on Friday. Our former energy sector holdings are down another between 4% and 11%, including SDRL, which dropped another 8% following Wednesday’s 23% plunge…

 

Have you avoided these sectors – you would have been better off to follow our advice in 2014 and now you have to decide for 2015.
No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.

Fees : 1 % annual set up and a performance bonus of 20 % – only if we perform.

You can withdraw your funds monthly if you require an income stream.

Contact information:

To learn more about portfolio management ,asset protection, trusts ,offshore company formation and structure for your business interests (at no cost or obligation)

Email

jackabass@gmail.com OR

info@jackbassteam.com  OR

Call Jack direct at 604-858-3202

10:00 – 4:00 Monday to Friday Pacific Time ( same time zone as Los Angeles).

Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

Tax website  Http://www.youroffshoremoney.com

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