“It looks like the market is going to continue being a big disappointment”
A deeper slump in earnings for ships that carry most of the world’s coal and ore cargoes would force owners to take vessels out of service, according to shipbroker RS Platou Markets AS.
Average daily earnings for Capesize ships fell to $3,735 today, the lowest in more than two years, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London. Rates will probably remain low next year, according to Herman Hildan, shipping analyst at Platou.
“At the moment, they’re barely covering their operating costs,” Hildan said by phone today from Oslo. “It doesn’t make sense for owners to participate in fixing vessels” if rates fall further.
Signs of slowing growth in China, the world’s largest importer of thermal coal and iron ore, have caused a collapse in Capesize rates of about 90 percent this year. China’s economy will expand by 7 percent next year, the slowest growth in a quarter century, according to economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. Customs data showed a slump in ore imports in November.
Hildan’s own estimates show Capesize vessels are currently earning $6,900 a day on average. Shippers would begin taking their vessels out of service when the daily rate falls below $5,000, he said.
The rate for the vessels, which can carry as much as 160,000 metric tons of iron ore, has averaged $13,923 in 2014, according to Baltic Exchange data. Analysts were expecting daily earnings of $18,500, according the median of estimates gathered by Bloomberg in January.
“It looks like the market is going to continue being a big disappointment” in 2015, Hildan said.
It is human nature to look for bargains – and destroy your portfolio as you gather losers into what used to be a ” nest” egg.
Look at Seeking Alpha and count the ” analysts” saying Dryships ( DRYS) is going to turn – how none forecast the sub dollar level it now enjoys.
What To Do ?
Here is our recent letter(the section on shipping)
Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast
Shipping Sector / Bulk ShippersYou can review our stock market letter at http://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates- illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait.
Have you avoided these sectors – you would have been better off to follow our advice in 2014 and now you have to decide for 2015.
No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.
Fees : 1 % annual set up and a performance bonus of 20 % – only if we perform.
You can withdraw your funds monthly if you require an income stream.
Alternate Guaranteed Income Payments
Private client funds Minimum $10,000 Maximum Loan $500,000
Our client is seeking funds to expand their tanker fleet .
Interest 12 % compounded – paid 1% per month
Floating charge of the full $500,000 against the fleet – valued at more than $ 1 M
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Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.
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