Look Out Below :Oil prices hit 11-year low as global supply balloons ( Reuters plus Bloomberg charts) )

December 21, 2015December 21, 2015 jackbassteam Bakken, Bakken Shale, Barnet Shale, Barnett Shale, Breaking News, Chesapeake, Commodities, Eagle Ford, Economic cycles, Energy, Fracking, Haynesville Shale, Jack A. Bass, LNG, Marcellus, Middle East, Montney, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Sands, Oilsands, OPEC Chesapeake Energy Corp., CHK, Commodities, energy, energy sector, Fracking, Jack A. Bass, Natural gas, oil, oil glut, oil imports, Oil Prices, oil sands, OPEC, U.S. oil exports, XOM

LONDON (Reuters) – Brent crude oil prices hit their lowest in more than 11 years on Monday, driven down by a relentless rise in global supply that looks set to outpace demand again next year.

Oil production is running close to record highs and, with more barrels poised to enter the market from nations such as Iran, the United States and Libya, the price of crude is set for its largest monthly percentage decline in seven years.

Brent futures (LCOc1) fell by as much as 2 percent to a low of $36.05 a barrel on Monday, their weakest since July 2004, and were down 49 cents at $36.39 by 1332 GMT.

While consumers have enjoyed lower fuel prices, the world’s richest oil exporters have been forced to revalue their currencies, sell off assets and even issue debt for the first time in years as they struggle to repair their finances.

OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, will stick with its year-old policy of compensating for lower prices with higher production, and shows no signs of wavering, even though lower prices are painful to its poorer members.

The price of oil has halved over the past year, dealing a blow to economies of oil producers such as Nigeria, which faces its worst crisis in years, and Venezuela, which has been plunged into deep recession.

Even wealthy Gulf Arab states have been hit. Last week Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain raised interest rates as they scrambled to protect their currencies.

NO LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

“With OPEC not in any mood to cut production … it does mean you are not going to get any rebalancing any time soon,” Energy Aspects chief oil analyst Amrita Sen said.

“Having said that, long term of course, the lower prices are today, the rebalancing will become even stronger and steeper, because of the capex (oil groups’ capital expenditure) cutbacks … but you’re not going to see that until end-2016.”

Reflecting the determination among the biggest producers to woo buyers at any cost, Russia now pumps oil at a post-Soviet high of more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd), while OPEC output is close to record levels above 31.5 million bpd.

Oil market liquidity usually evaporates ahead of the holiday period, meaning that intra-day price moves can become exaggerated.

On average, in the last 15 years, December is the month with least trading volume, which tends to be just 85 percent of that in May, the month which sees most volume change hands.

Brent crude prices have dropped by nearly 19 percent this month, their steepest fall since the collapse of failed U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in October 2008.

U.S. crude futures (CLc1) were down 26 cents at $34.47 a barrel, their lowest since 2009.

“Really, I wouldn’t like to be in the shoes of an oil exporter getting into 2016. It’s not exactly looking as if there is light at the end of the tunnel any time soon,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS.N) believes it could take a drop to as little as $20 a barrel for supply to adjust to demand.

Thanks to the shale revolution, the U.S. has been pumping a lot of oil on the cheap, helping to drive down prices to six-year lows and to fill up storage tanks. Indeed, we’re running out of places to put it.

LOOK OUT BELOW

The U.S. has 490 million barrels of oil in storage, enough to keep the country running smoothly for nearly a month, without any added oil production or imports. That inventory doesn’t include the government’s own Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to be used in the now highly unlikely event of an oil shortage. Nor does it include oil waiting at sea for higher prices. The lower 48 states also boast about 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage — a far bigger cushion than Americans have needed so far during a very warm winter.

For their part, OECD countries (including the U.S.) have nearly 3 billion barrels of oil in storage — or enough to keep factories lit and houses heated in those countries for two months, cumulatively, without added production or imports.

The glut is going to continue worldwide unless some major producers stop pumping. OPEC announced recently that it was abandoning output limits.

So what happens when there’s too much oil to store? Producers will try to rid themselves of it by cutting prices. In that scenario, the price would plummet so far that some producers would shutter their wells altogether — which is, perhaps, the only way that the oil glut will ease.

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Encana -OIl and Natural Gas – Prayer Is Not A Strategy : Get Out

December 16, 2015December 16, 2015 jackbassteam Alberta, asset protection, Bakken, Bakken Shale, Bargain Basement Stocks, Barnet Shale, Breaking News, Chesapeake, Commodities, DJIA, Eagle Ford, Economic cycles, Energy, forecasts, Haynesville Shale, Jack A. Bass, Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts, LNG, Oil, Oil Sands, Oilsands, OPEC ECA, EnCana, energy sector, Jack A. Bass, Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts, Natural gas, oil, Oil Prices

Too little , too late

The company will outspend cash flow next year, with its cash flow of $1 billion to $1.2 billion reflecting a cash shortfall of $550 million, based on U.S. crude prices of US$50 per barrel and US$2.75 natural gas prices.

Our position: Analysts and the company executives are sleep walking past the graveyard.

Encana Corp slashes dividend and cuts capital spending

from Tuesday Financial Post

Encana Corp. is planning to “reset” its dividend next year as it adjusts to a protracted downturn that has seen oil prices decline to a six year-low.

The Calgary-based company said it is cutting its dividend by 79 per cent to six cents from 28 cents. The company’s stock tumbled more than eight per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday.

“This reset better aligns our dividend with our cash flow or balance sheet and recognizes the very high quality investment options in our portfolio,” CEO Doug Suttles told analysts during a conference call outlining the company’s 2016 capital program.

Canada’s oil and gas sector is in the middle of an austerity drive, as one of the world’s highest-cost jurisdictions comes to terms with prices that have dipped below US$35 per barrel and have lost more than 50 per cent of their value in the space of a year.

The industry has lost 35,000 jobs since OPEC members started driving down prices by raising output in a bid to squeeze out high cost-producers in November 2014.

Canadian companies have responded by reducing headcounts, shelving projects, reining in capital expenditure and cutting dividends to protect their balance sheets — and there may be little respite in the new year.

Encana plans to cut its capital spending by 27 per cent next year to between US$1.5 billion to US$1.7 billion, with half the budget allocated to its Permian basin straddling Texas and New Mexico.

Indeed, the company plans to raise investment in its Permian operations to around $800 million from $700 million a year earlier, but will throttle back in Eagle Ford, and in the Canadian shale plays of the Duvernay and Montney, as it focuses on the most cost-effective play in its portfolio.

While the capital budget was in line with expectations, both total production and liquids production fell short of expectations, which will likely see our cash flow estimates come down with leverage increasing further,” wrote Kyle Preston, an analyst with National Bank Financial Inc. The analyst sees the company’s announcement as “negative,” and cut its price target to US$8 from US$10.

“While we do not see any near-term risk of breaching any debt covenants, we believe the budget may have to be revised down again if commodity prices remain at or near current levels for an extended period,” Preston said.

NONSENSE_ look where prices are – don’t base analysis on dreams:

INDEX	UNITS	PRICE	CHANGE	%CHANGE	CONTRACT	TIME ET
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex)	USD/bbl.	35.71	-1.64	-4.39%	JAN 16	11:25:36
CO1:COM Brent Crude (ICE)	USD/bbl.	37.14	-1.31	-3.41%	JAN 16	11:24:40
CP1:COM Crude Oil (Tokyo)	JPY/kl	28,540.00	-870.00	-2.96%	MAY 16	11:26:00
NG1:COM Natural Gas (Nymex)	USD/MMBtu	1.79	-0.03	-1.70%	JAN 16	11:25:41

Read More on The Sector Sea Change at http://www.youroffshoremoney.com

UPDATE:

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a growing glut, with crude inventories up 4.8 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a decrease of 1.4 million barrels.

“Only the staunchest contrarian could derive anything bullish out of that report,” said Peter Donovan, broker at Liquidity Energy in New York.

“The actual numbers were more bearish than all expectations, as well as more bearish than the API report released last night,” he said.

$20 Oil If OPEC Doesn’t Act : Venezuela

November 22, 2015November 22, 2015 jackbassteam Bakken Shale, Barnet Shale, Barnett Shale, Commodities, Economic cycles, Economic Recovery, Haynesville Shale, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Sands, Oilsands, OPEC Fracking, Oil Prices, OPEC, Shale, Venezuela

Don’t Cry for Me Venezuela
It won’t be easy, you’ll think it strange
When I try to explain how I feel
That I still need your love after all that I’ve doneI had to let it happen, I had to change
Couldn’t stay all my life down at heel
Looking out of the window, staying out of the sun
OPEC member seeks `equilibrium price’ of $88 a barrel
Saudis, Qatar to consider proposal, Venezuelan minister says

Oil prices may drop to as low as the mid-$20s a barrel unless OPEC takes action to stabilize the market, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino said.

Venezuela is urging the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to adopt an “equilibrium price” that covers the cost of new investment in production capacity, Del Pino told reporters Sunday in Tehran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are considering his country’s proposal for an equilibrium price at $88 a barrel, he said.

OPEC ministers plan to meet on Dec. 4 to assess the producer group’s output policy amid a global supply glut that has pushed down crude prices by 44 percent in the last 12 months. OPEC supplies about 40 percent of the world’s production and has exceeded its official output ceiling of 30 million barrels a day for 17 months as it defends its share of the market. Benchmark Brent crude settled 48 cents higher at $44.66 a barrel in London on Friday.

“We cannot allow that the market continue controlling the price,” Del Pino said. “The principles of OPEC were to act on the price of the crude oil, and we need to go back to the principles of OPEC.”

OPEC ministers will meet informally on Dec. 3 in Vienna, a day before the group’s formal session, he said.

Natural Gas Futures Plunge 4% after bearish storage data

May 30, 2015 jackbassteam Barnet Shale, Barnett Shale, Chesapeake, Commodities, Energy, Haynesville Shale, Natural Gas Chesapeake Energy, CHK. Warren Resources, Natural gas, Natural Gas Prices, Natural gas storage, New York Mercantile Exchange, WRES

Investing.com – Natural gas futures plunged sharply to hit a three-week low on Thursday, after data showed that U.S. natural gas supplies rose more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in July tumbled 11.8 cents, or 4.16%, to trade at $2.729 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. Prices were at around $2.790 prior to the release of the supply data.

A day earlier, natural gas prices shed 0.2 cents, or 0.07%, to close at $2.847. Futures were likely to find support at $2.710 per million British thermal units, the low from May 7, and resistance at $2.915, the high from May 27.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended May 22 rose by 112 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for an increase of 99 billion and following a build of 92 billion cubic feet in the preceding week.

Supplies rose by 113 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 95 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.101 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 737 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 18 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 2.119 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

Meanwhile, weather forecasting models called for slightly warmer than average temperatures across the U.S. over the next ten days, although not yet enough to significantly boost cooling demand.

Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extreme temperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for delivery in July fell 79 cents, or 1.37%, to trade at $56.72 a barrel, while heating oil for July delivery dropped 0.41% to trade at $1.852 per gallon.

Oil Extends Drop : Worsening Glut – With Oil Companies and Investors In Denial

January 13, 2015 jackbassteam Alberta, Bakken Shale, Barnet Shale, Barnett Shale, Chesapeake, Commodities, Drilling Companies, Eagle Ford, Energy, forecasts, Fracking, Haynesville Shale, Jack A. Bass, Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts, Marcellus, Montney, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Sands, Oilsands, OPEC Brent crude oil, Canadian Oil Sands, Chevron, COS, crude oil prices, energy, Exxon, oil, oil price forecast, Oil Prices, OPEC, Shale, SU, Suncor Energy, XOM

Oil extended losses to trade below $45 a barrel amid speculation that U.S. crude stockpiles will increase, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices to the lowest in more than 5 1/2 years.

Futures fell as much as 2.6 percent in New York, declining for a third day. Crude inventories probably gained by 1.75 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey shows before government data tomorrow. The United Arab Emirates, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will stand by its plan to expand output capacity even with “unstable oil prices,” according to Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.

Oil slumped almost 50 percent last year, the most since the 2008 financial crisis, as the U.S. pumped at the fastest rate in more than three decades and OPEC resisted calls to cut production. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said crude needs to drop to $40 a barrel to “re-balance” the market, while Societe Generale SA also reduced its price forecasts.

“There’s adequate supply,” David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone today. “It’s really going to take someone from the supply side to step up and cut, and the only organization capable of doing something substantial is OPEC. I can’t see the U.S. reducing output.”

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery decreased as much as $1.19 to $44.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $44.94 at 2:26 p.m. Singapore time. The contract lost $2.29 to $46.07 yesterday, the lowest close since April 2009. The volume of all futures traded was about 51 percent above the 100-day average.

U.S. Supplies

Brent for February settlement slid as much as $1.31, or 2.8 percent, to $46.12 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $1.24 to WTI. The spread was $1.36 yesterday, the narrowest based on closing prices since July 2013.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably rose to 384.1 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 9, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey of six analysts before the Energy Information Administration’s report. Supplies have climbed to almost 8 percent above the five-year average level for this time of year, data from the Energy Department’s statistical arm show.

Production accelerated to 9.14 million barrels a day through Dec. 12, the most in weekly EIA records that started in January 1983. The nation’s oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which has unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Eagle Ford and Permian in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota.

OPEC Output

The U.A.E. will continue plans to boost its production capacity to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2017, Al Mazrouei said in a presentation in Abu Dhabi yesterday. The country currently has a capacity of 3 million and pumped 2.7 million a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

OPEC, whose 12 members supply about 40 percent of the world’s oil, agreed to maintain their collective output target at 30 million barrels a day at a Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna. Qatar estimates the global surplus at 2 million a day.

In China, the world’s biggest oil consumer after the U.S., crude imports surged to a new high in December, capping a record for last year. Overseas purchases rose 19.5 percent from the previous month to 30.4 million metric tons, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs in Beijing today. For 2014, imports climbed 9.5 percent to 310 million tons, or about 6.2 million barrels a day.

Oil Companies and Investors In Denial : Portfolio Profits At Risk

My rant – the curse of Cassandra :

Cassandra, daughter of the king and queen, in the temple of Apollo, exhausted from practising, is said to have fallen asleep – when Apollo wished to embrace her, she did not afford the opportunity of her body. On account of which thing :

when she prophesied true things, she was not believed.

I have written :

Managed Accounts Year End Review and Forecast

Posted on November 30, 2014by jackbassteam

Shipping Sector / Bulk ShippersYou can review our stock market letter athttp://www.amp2012.com to follow our profits in the shipping sector before our retreat as overcapacity has yet to effect continued overbuiding. In 2008-9 rates- illustrated by the Baltic Dry Index – were at their peak. The BDI hit over 10,000. Today it is roughly 10 % of that benchmark and the sector slide continues. We have an impressive watchlist of former ” darlings” – but we are content to watch and wait.

Oil/ Energy I am very happy for the call in natural gas prices – out at $12 and into oil. When oil was above $100 we lessened positions and that is our saving grace in the past two weeks. We are not bottom feeders and will wait for a turn in the market before reentering drillers or producers.On Friday November 27th, crude oil prices dropped to below $72 and the slide has continued into the weekend, with Brent crude oil at $70.15 as I write this post. Shares of major oil companies traded down on Friday. Our former energy sector holdings are down another between 4% and 11%, including SDRL, which dropped another 8% following Wednesday’s 23% plunge…

Have you avoided these sectors ?– you ( your portfolio) would have been better off today

and now you have to decide for 2015.

No one – and I am not being humble here – can project the future with great accuracy but our clients continue to do very well and we offer that experience to you.

Jack A. Bass Managed Accounts

Fees : 1 % annual set up and a performance bonus of 20 % – only if we perform.

You can withdraw your funds at the rate of 1 % monthly if you require an income stream

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Similar to wise buying decisions, exiting certain underperformers at the right time helps maximize portfolio returns. Selling off losers can be difficult, but if both the share price and estimates are falling, it could be time to get rid of the security before more losses hit your portfolio.

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